Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2023: What It Means for Bitcoin

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2023: What It Means for Bitcoin

April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation matched the 3.8% year-over-year forecast, its highest reading since May 2023. Bitcoin (BTC) slid toward $73,300 as the print pushed the Fed's preferred gauge further from its 2% target.

Core PCE rose 3.3% on the year, also in line with forecasts. Monthly readings came in softer at 0.2%, below the 0.3% estimate and reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate path.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the April Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday. Headline PCE matched the 3.8% consensus forecast at its highest annual level since May 2023.

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.3% from a year earlier. The reading sits at its highest level since October 2023 and nearly doubles the Fed's 2% target.

Monthly figures gave doves a small win. Core PCE rose 0.2% in April, below both the 0.3% forecast and the prior month's pace.

Personal income was flat for the month, missing the 0.4% consensus, while consumer spending rose 0.5%. Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000, slightly above the 211,000 expected. Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6%.

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Bitcoin traded near $73,404 after the print, down 2.89% over 24 hours. Its market capitalization stood at roughly $1.47 trillion. The slide echoes a recent Bitcoin price drop after hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.

CME FedWatch data showed a 98.9% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. Only 1.1% of traders priced in a quarter-point cut.

The data extends a higher-for-longer Fed stance that markets have been pricing for weeks.

Sticky annual inflation has supported a stronger US dollar and pressured non-yielding assets. The Kobeissi Letter framed the print as a setback for the easing camp.

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