Two market analysts on Tuesday warned the macro economic conditions, including the potential for a U.S. and E.U. tariff escalation and geopolitical tensions, are in place for bitcoin to drop in line with veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction.
Brandt, a futures trader since 1975 with more than 852,000 followers on X, said late Monday that bitcoin (BTC) could fall to between $58,000 and $62,000 within the next two weeks.
In the X post, Brandt shared a chart showing key resistance for BTC at around $102,300, and said bitcoin remains in a bearish downtrend. “58k to $62k is where I think it is going $BTC. If it does not go there I will NOT be ashamed, so I do not need to see you trolls screen shot this in the future,” Brandt wrote.
He added that he’s “wrong 50% of the time. It does not bother me to be wrong.”
Jason Fernandes, market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, said Brandt’s target is possible, but emphasized that macro conditions may matter more than chart patterns.
“Brandt’s $58,000–$62,000 target is technically achievable, but charts aren’t the driver here, macro is,” Fernandes said.
Fernandes pointed to several factors that could contribute to the drop.
“U.S. inflation falling below 2% hasn’t translated into easier policy, as central banks remain cautious,” he said. “Any escalation in tariffs or geopolitical friction risks re-injecting inflation and delaying rate cuts. Tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland could also intensify, making a high-rate defensive stance more likely.”
As long as “rates remain restrictive, liquidity stays capped, a move back into the mid-$50,000 range for bitcoin is firmly in play,” Fernandes added.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, also agreed with Brandt’s assessment of the odds.
“As Brandt stated there’s a 50-50 chance the price will drop that far. Technical setups matter, but after several years of Fed-driven liquidity withdrawal and one of the worst economies in decades, macro conditions are likely to matter more than any single chart pattern,” Greenspan said.
Fernandes shared one final observation: “To better gauge bitcoin's next move, “I’ll be watching developments around Greenland, the Federal Reserve, and U.S. interest rates.”
On a longer forecast, data from decentralized trading venues points to a 30% chance of bitcoin falling below $80,000 by June. There's similar positioning on Deribit, the largest centralized options exchange.