Prediction markets show there’s only a 20% chance the U.S. will take over Greenland this year.
• It comes after Trump threatened Europe with 25% tariffs for opposing the annexation of Greenland
• Analysts say prediction markets are not always accurate.
Donald Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs against Europe rattled markets this week and sent Bitcoin lower, but crypto traders are not confident the U.S. President’s controversial plan to acquire Greenland will materialize.
Trump said on Jan. 17 the U.S. would impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries for opposing the annexation of self-governing Danish territory, Greenland. The tariffs will increase to 25% on June 1.Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Sweden – all longtime allies of the United States in NATO – would face the tariffs starting February 1, Trump wrote on Truth Social.The move renewed fears of widening trade disputes and triggered a sell-off in risk assets. Bitcoin has tanked nearly 7% since the announcement, and the S&P 500 fell 2% on Tuesday, extending losses from a day earlier.
However, prediction markets tell a different story. Polymarket data shows there’s currently only a 20% chance the U.S. will acquire Greenland by Dec. 31, 2026, and a 30% chance by Mar. 31 this year.
The data suggests crypto traders see the plan as unlikely despite Trump’s repeated political rhetoric, but analysts warn that thin liquidity, regulatory uncertainty in some cases and speculative behaviour can distort prices.“Prediction markets have shown growing traction in forecasting political outcomes, but they are not always accurate,” said Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at crypto exchange CEX.io, in an interview with Cryptonews.
“They can be best viewed as an additional signal rather than a definitive measure. They can help gauge sentiment and probability, but their figures should not be taken at face value without broader context.”
Crypto-based prediction markets have seen massive growth in recent years, with the sector expected to have reached about $40 billion in transaction volume at the end of 2025, up more than 400% from a year earlier.At this pace, the sector is set to rival the $300 billion global sports betting industry in 2026, analysts say, driven by regulatory clarity in the U.S., institutional buy-in and a change in how the public consumes information.The sector, which is dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, is going from a crypto-native niche to mainstream. Real-world events like politics, sports, culture, and economic indicators are now tradable financial instruments.During recent U.S. election cycles, Polymarket reported a surge in volume as users bet on outcomes ranging from presidential races to interest rate decisions. Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto yield platform Tymio, said prediction market prices “reflect a consensus on probabilities, not directional bets by crypto traders.” But he also believes that the markets have “matured into fairly reliable tools for assessing political risk,” telling Cryptonews: