Bitcoin’s price action over the past week has highlighted just how reactive this market has become to shifts in positioning and sentiment. BTC briefly lost the $90,000 handle before catching an early bounce, fueled by elevated volatility and dip-buying from short-term players. The move was fast, noisy, and headline-driven—classic late-cycle behavior.
While price has managed to stabilize for the moment, the broader flow picture remains mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETF participants are still sitting on the sidelines, and that caution could ultimately dictate whether this bounce has legs or fades into another lower high.
On-chain data shows that realized losses are currently concentrated among the three- to six-month holder cohort, with a secondary contribution from holders in the six- to 12-month range. These are typically participants who bought closer to cycle highs, particularly above the $110,000 region, and are now being forced to confront drawdowns as price revisits their cost basis.
This type of loss realization is usually driven by risk reduction rather than fresh bearish conviction. These holders tend to sell into strength during early rebounds, creating overhead supply near key recovery levels. As a result, Bitcoin's upside attempts often stall before momentum can fully rebuild.
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Historically, spikes in realized losses from these age bands have tended to mark later stages of corrective phases rather than the start of prolonged distribution. In past cycles, Bitcoin has often stabilized and pushed higher once this group finishes capitulating, suggesting the current behavior may be closer to exhaustion than escalation.
From a momentum standpoint, conditions have improved faster than many expected. The Money Flow Index has printed a sharp upswing over the past 48 hours, pointing to renewed buying pressure. Because MFI incorporates both price and volume, it’s a solid proxy for real demand during volatile stretches.
The jump in MFI appears tied to easing geopolitical tension, including developments around the Greenland situation. Bitcoin’s reaction highlights how sensitive short-term participants remain to macro headlines. While this influx of buying supports near-term stabilization, it’s worth noting that headline-driven optimism can fade quickly if the macro narrative turns risk-off again.
In other words, momentum has improved, but it remains fragile and reactive rather than structurally bullish.