The Bitcoin price is stuck in place. BTC is trading flat over the past 24 hours and down about 6% over the past week. On the surface, nothing dramatic is happening. Underneath, however, four separate risk signals are starting to align. A bearish chart pattern is forming. Long-term holders are selling faster. ETF demand has just logged its weakest week since November. And the buyers replacing sellers are increasingly short-term and speculative.
None of these signals alone would break the market. Together, they suggest Bitcoin is losing conviction at a sensitive level.
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern reflects a loss of upward momentum, where each rally attempt tops out lower than the last. The neckline sits near $86,430.
If price breaks that neckline, the measured move implies a downside of roughly 9–10%.
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Momentum supports that risk. The 20-period exponential moving average is rolling over and closing in on the 50-period EMA. An EMA gives more weight to recent prices and helps track trend direction. A bearish crossover would make it easier for sellers to push the price lower.
This weakening structure becomes more concerning once holder behavior is added.
Long-term holders, wallets holding Bitcoin for more than a year, are increasing selling pressure.
On January 21, long-term holders sold roughly 75,950 BTC (outflows). By January 22, that figure jumped to about 122,486 BTC. That is an increase of roughly 61% in one day, a sharp acceleration rather than a steady distribution.
This selling is not happening from fear but from a lack of higher price conviction. Long-term holder NUPL, which measures unrealized profit or loss, has dropped to a six-month low but remains in the belief zone. Holders are still sitting on profits.
That means selling is voluntary. They are choosing to reduce exposure, not being forced out. As these high-conviction holders sell, the type of buyers stepping in matters. The long-term supply release is also highlighted by experts on X:
Bitcoin spot ETFs just recorded their weakest week of 2026 and the weakest weekly demand since November.