Gold and silver extended their January rally on Thursday, pushing closer to key price milestones as bitcoin (BTC) remained listles near $90,000. bitcoin traded flat at $89,930.
Spot gold traded near $4,950 per ounce, up about 2.5% on the day, while silver jumped more than 6% to just under $99. The gains cap a month of outsized performance for precious metals, with gold up more than 7% and silver higher by nearly 30%, far outpacing most major asset classes.
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Prediction markets suggest traders increasingly view those levels as stepping stones rather than ceilings. On Polymarket, contracts asking whether gold or ether will be first to reach $5,000 assign gold a 97% implied probability as ETH is trading under $3,000.
Separate month-end markets cluster heavily around outcomes that place gold at or above $5,000 by the end of January, with relatively little weight on materially lower prices. Silver markets show similar conviction, with strong odds assigned to prices finishing above $85 and substantial positioning for a move to $100.
Several prominent analysts expect more gains for precious metals. Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 price for gold to $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900.
For bitcoin, Polymarket traders are anticipating it remaining range-bound around $85,000 within January.
The volatility backdrop helps explain how the rally is being expressed. Silver’s 30-day realized volatility has surged into the high-60s, while gold’s realized volatility has risen, but remains comparatively contained in the low-20s, signaling a steadier and more orderly repricing rather than a disorderly squeeze.
Bitcoin, by comparison, has seen realized volatility compress into the mid-30s even as prices churn near recent highs, highlighting a shift in where markets are expressing macro uncertainty.