Bitcoin price has barely moved over the past 24 hours. BTC is trading flat near $89,500, even as weekly losses still sit close to 6%. On the surface, this looks like calm consolidation. Underneath, charts suggest something else.
Multiple technical and on-chain signals now point to a standoff. Buyers are trying to delay a larger breakdown, not push a fresh rally. The risk is building quietly, and a lesser-known adversary is starting to matter.
Over the past three daily sessions, Bitcoin has printed doji-like candles with thin bodies and long wicks. These candles reflect hesitation, not balance. Sellers are pressing lower, buyers are stepping in late, and neither side is gaining control.
This behavior is appearing right at the lower boundary of a rising wedge. An increasing wedge slopes upward but tightens price action, often breaking down when support gives way.
If this structure fails, the measured downside projection points toward $77,300, a potential 13% drop from current levels.
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The technical risk deepens when moving averages are added. Bitcoin lost its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20. An EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices, making it sensitive to short-term shifts.
The last time Bitcoin clearly broke below the 20-day EMA, on December 12, the price corrected by roughly 8%. This time, BTC has already slipped about 5% from the breakdown before stabilizing. The doji-like candles suggest buyers are slowing the fall, not reversing it.
In short, this is not indecision between bulls and bears. It is buyers attempting to delay a larger move lower.
So who is still buying, and why is that support weakening?
Long-Term Holders Are Still Buying, but the Pace Is Slowing
On-chain data shows that long-term holders, wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or more, are still net buyers. This cohort is tracked using the Holder Net Position Change metric, which measures how many coins long-term investors add or remove over time.
Over the past two weeks, this metric has remained positive. That buying helps explain why Bitcoin has not broken down yet.
But the strength is fading.
On January 19, long-term holders added roughly 22,618 BTC. By January 23, that daily net buying had dropped to about 17,109 BTC. That is a roughly 24% decline in buying intensity in just four days.
So while holders are still supporting the price, they are doing so with less force. That lines up with the doji-like candles seen on the chart. Support exists, but it is thinning.