Bitcoin is approaching a key macro event as US lawmakers race to avert another federal government shutdown before the January 30 funding deadline. The market enters this period under pressure, following a failed January rally and a sharp shift in sentiment.
Historically, Bitcoin has not behaved as a reliable hedge during US government shutdowns. Instead, price action has tended to follow existing market momentum.
Why a US Shutdown Is Back on the Table
The renewed shutdown risk stems from Congress failing to finalize several FY2026 appropriations bills. Temporary funding is set to expire on January 30, and negotiations remain stalled, particularly around Department of Homeland Security funding.
Unless lawmakers pass either a new continuing resolution or full-year funding before the deadline, parts of the federal government would begin shutting down immediately. Markets are now treating January 30 as a binary macro event.
Bitcoin’s price action throughout January 2026 has already reflected growing fragility. After briefly pushing toward the $95,000–$98,000 range mid-month, BTC failed to hold those levels and reversed sharply.
Bitcoin’s historical performance during US government shutdowns provides little support for a bullish narrative.
During the past four shutdown events over the last decade, Bitcoin declined or extended existing downtrends in three cases.
Only one shutdown, a brief funding lapse in February 2018, coincided with a rally. That move occurred during a technical oversold bounce rather than as a response to the shutdown itself.
The broader pattern is consistent. Shutdowns tend to act as volatility catalysts, not directional drivers. Bitcoin typically amplifies its existing trend rather than reversing it.
Recent on-chain data adds another layer of caution. According to CryptoQuant, several major US-based mining firms sharply dropped production in recent days as winter storms forced power grid curtailments.
Daily Bitcoin output fell materially across firms such as CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and IREN. While reduced production can temporarily limit sell-side supply, it also signals operational stress within the mining sector.