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Standard Chartered has again cut its 2026 Bitcoin forecast.
"I think we are going to see more pain," Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note to investors on Feb. 12, disclosing that the bank has cut its year-end Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000.
Alongside Bitcoin, Standard Chartered cut its Ethereum forecast from $7,500 to $4,000. It also cut its Solana and XRP forecasts from $250 and $ 8 to $ 135 and $2.80, respectively.
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Kendrick said in the short term Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to fall to $50,000 or below, while Ethereum could fall to $1,400 before rebounding to year-end targets. He cited anticipated investor behavior in Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin ETF investors have pulled out an estimated 100,000 BTC from the products since October, Kendrick said, adding that "further capitulation" is likely, as investors are sitting on significant losses at current prices, with an average purchase price of $90,000.
Kendrick also said current macroeconomic conditions are unfavorable. He cited a mixed U.S. economic outlook and slim chances of a rate cut until President Donald Trump‘s Federal Reserve chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, potentially takes office in May. He said Bitcoin ETF inflows were unlikely to resume till then.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum were most recently trading near $67,000 and $2,000, respectively. The assets had already fallen as low as $60,000 and $1,700 this year amid liquidity concerns and the lack of a clear narrative.
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Standard Chartered’s most recent update comes about a month after it initially cut its Bitcoin forecast for this year from $300,000 to $150,000, citing a decline in buying for digital asset treasury company buys.
Kendrick said the bank remains optimistic in the long term as "long-term drivers remain intact" and as the recent downturn has not led to the collapse of any cryptocurrency project or company.