The MicroStrategy stock started the post-President’s Day session on a weak note. MSTR closed nearly 4% lower compared to its Feb. 13 (last Friday's) close, reflecting renewed selling pressure despite positive corporate news.
This decline comes even after Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, added more Bitcoin, lowering its average purchase cost. However, charts now show that this latest BTC average drop didn't mean much for the immediate fate of the MSTR. A much larger downside risk is forming beneath the surface.
MicroStrategy recently purchased 2,486 Bitcoin at an average price of $67,710. This latest acquisition increased its total holdings from 714,644 BTC earlier this month to 717,131 BTC.
Because this purchase was made below MicroStrategy’s previous average cost, it helped lower the company’s overall Bitcoin cost basis. MicroStrategy’s average acquisition price dropped from $76,052 (early this month) to $76,027 (at press time). This represents a $25 average cost reduction.
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While this technically improves MicroStrategy’s balance sheet, the impact remains small relative to its total position.
The company still holds Bitcoin at an average cost above $76,000, which remains significantly higher than many earlier cycle acquisitions. More importantly, market indicators show that big money investors are not reacting positively, even to this development.
One key indicator explaining investor behavior is the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. This metric measures whether large investors are putting money into a stock or pulling money out by combining price and volume data. When CMF stays above zero, it signals net buying pressure. When it falls toward zero or below, it shows capital inflows are weakening.
Strategy’s CMF has been trending lower and is now sitting close to the zero line, on the brink of breaking below. It is also approaching a critical ascending trendline support. This shows that despite the latest Bitcoin purchase, large investors are not aggressively accumulating the MSTR stock. Instead, capital inflows remain weak.
This lack of conviction becomes more concerning when combined with weakening momentum signals.
Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, shows a hidden bearish divergence forming. RSI measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100 and helps identify weakening trends.