Chase Guo, a former business development executive at Binance, has made a bold prediction: Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026 —but not for the reasons most market participants expect.
Speaking in a recent interview, the ex-Binance BD argued that the next major Bitcoin breakout will not be driven primarily by the halving cycle, retail euphoria, or macroeconomic tailwinds.
Instead, he believes the catalyst will come from liquidity positioning and structural dynamics within the crypto market itself.
According to the former executive, crypto asset pricing is governed by three dominant forces:
• Token holder structure (often referred to as “chip structure”).
These elements, he argued, determine price trends over short- to medium-term cycles ranging from seven days to three months.
In this framework, long-term fundamentals often take a back seat. Instead, capital inflows and outflows, social media momentum, and the distribution of tokens among holders shape volatility and trend direction.
While Bitcoin is often framed as a long-term store of value, the ex-Binance insider emphasized that even BTC remains heavily influenced by short-term liquidity flows and leveraged positioning.
A key component of his 2026 forecast centers on how large players interact with market consensus. When a majority of traders align around a bullish or bearish narrative, liquidity often clusters around predictable price levels.
According to the former BD, this creates opportunities for sophisticated market participants to engineer volatility.
In his view, the next Bitcoin ATH could emerge from such a liquidity squeeze scenario — where positioning, derivatives exposure, and capital rotation align to force price discovery beyond previous highs.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently sits at a fraction of gold’s, leaving room for expansion if global liquidity conditions remain supportive.
Even modest institutional or sovereign capital rotation, he suggested, could significantly impact price levels given BTC’s relatively fixed supply.
However, the expert cautions that the path to new highs would likely be volatile and counterintuitive. Rather than a smooth, narrative-driven rally, he anticipates sharp swings designed to shake out overleveraged traders before a sustained breakout.