Ethereum (ETH) is holding below $2,000, leaving many investors underwater as the downtrend extends into February 2026.
Despite the sustained weakness, BitMine has maintained a bullish stance on Ethereum. This raises a key question: Is their confidence driven by narrative or sentiment, or is there another factor behind their conviction?
Ethereum’s Pain Reaches 9th Decile: What Does That Mean For The Price?
In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), BitMine highlighted the research by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, focusing on Ethereum’s realized price. This is an on-chain valuation metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all coins currently in circulation.
According to the data, Ethereum’s realized price stands at $2,241. At the time of the analysis, the asset was trading near $1,934.
This leaves the average holder in the red. According to Fundstrat’s model, the “loss for realized price was 22%.”
The analysis compared the current drawdown to prior cycle lows. During the 2022 bear market, Ethereum traded as much as 39% below its realized price. In 2025, the discount reached approximately 21%.
Using a decile analysis, the post revealed that the current drawdown falls into the 9th decile (extremely high). For context, a decile analysis is a quantitative method used in statistics, finance, and marketing to segment a dataset into 10 equal-sized groups (deciles) based on the distribution of a specific variable.
The data suggests that the median 12-month forward return in this decile was approximately 81%, with a 12-month win ratio of 87%. In other words, in most historical instances when ETH reached similar drawdown levels, it was trading higher one year later.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee previously emphasized that sharp drawdowns are a recurring feature of Ethereum’s price history. Since 2018, ETH has experienced eight separate declines of 50% or more from local highs, suggesting that corrections of this magnitude have occurred roughly once per year.
In 2025, Ethereum fell 64% between January and March. Despite that steep drop, the asset later rebounded significantly.
"ETH sees V-shaped recoveries from major lows. This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026. The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines. Think back to 2025, the single best entry points in crypto occurred after markets fell sharply due to tariff concerns," Lee said.