Bitcoin and crypto prices have swung wildly in recent weeks, with a Goldman Sachs flip failing to lift the bitcoin price from its 50% crash.
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The bitcoin price has limped into 2026 after a bruising year that comes as the U.S. dollar is teetering on the edge of a full-blown collapse.
Now, with the bitcoin and crypto market braced for a surprise Elon Musk "game-changer," a sudden sea change in Washington DC could be about to trigger a “massive” bitcoin price shock.
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The odds of the odds of crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act passing before the end of the year surged to 90% on the Polymarket prediction platform this week, up from lows of 40% in January, before dropping back to around 70%.
“The Clarity Act would be a massive trigger for the markets,” venture capitalist Michaël van de Poppe posted to X, pointing to the growth of stablecoins following passage of the Genius Act last year.
Last year, as excitement around the Genius Act stablecoin bill fed into the bitcoin price, a torrent of bullish bitcoin price predictions followed.
“Once [the crypto market stucture bill is] signed into law, the flood gates will be wide open and the rush of capital will be like nothing you’ve ever seen before," Satoshi Action Fund cofounder Dennis Porter posted to X.
“There are trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines. But they can’t move until it’s regulated and the compliance infrastructure is there," Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary told Coindesk.
This week, the latest White House-hosted meeting between crypto and banking groups, which is attempting to find a solution to the question of stablecoin interest payments in the stalled Clarity Act, has been described as “constructive.”
Reports following the third meeting suggested the White House is backing crypto companies in favor of the ability for some stablecoin rewards to be paid to holders.
XRP developer Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse told Fox Business he sees a 90% chance that the Clarity Act crypto market structure bill will now pass by the end of April, pointing to renewed momentum in Washington following the White House-backed talks.
Brian Armstrong, the chief executive at the crypto exchange Coinbase, has said he believes a "win-win-win outcome" for the U.S. crypto market structure bill known as the Clarity Act is possible, telling CNBC that the bill could become law by April.
"Market structure is making great progress," Armstrong posted to X alongside the interview, adding he sees the legislation as "a win for the crypto industry. A win for the banks. And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer."
Last month, Armstrong torpedoed the bill when he abruptly pulled Coinbase’s support, derailing a key vote on the legislation that still has yet to be rescheduled. Armstrong said at the time that Coinbase would “rather have no bill than a bad bill.”
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Meanwhile, speaking alongside Armstrong at the World Liberty Forum hosted at U.S. president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon said he is "in the same camp" as Treasury secretary Scott Bessent when it came to the Senate’s crypto bill.
"It is very, very important that we codify a rules-based system. It’s not going to be perfect," Solomon said, echoing Bessent in advising companies that want to operate without rules to "move to El Salvador."
However, not everyone is convinced that Clarity Act passage through Congress or Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will deliver a bitcoin price boom.
“Everyone’s staring into the crystal ball, trying to guess the next big bitcoin catalyst, however, don’t expect those to magically push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, or even back to $100,000 at this point," Koinly chief executive Robin Singh said in emailed comments, predicting the bitcoin price could remain around $70,000 for the next few months or even drop towards $50,000.
“The biggest rallies rarely follow the obvious playbook that everyone is expecting. At the end of the day, there still needs to be a real increase in demand, and by late 2025, many of these bullish catalysts had more optimism around them and were potentially somewhat already priced into the October high.”