Bitcoin price is up nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, briefly touching the $70,000 level before pulling back toward $68,000. This rebound helped Bitcoin recover almost 12% from its February 24 low.
But despite this strong move, Bitcoin could not hold above $70,000. This hesitation is not random. It reflects a deeper issue that Dessislava Ianeva, Research Analyst at Nexo, says is still limiting Bitcoin’s recovery. Multiple data points now show that while buy signals are appearing, conviction remains weak. And until Bitcoin clears the $70,000 to $70,800 zone, this recovery may remain incomplete.
Smart Money Signals Price Recovery, But Breakout Still Needs Confirmation
Bitcoin’s recent rebound did not happen without warning. One key indicator called the Smart Money Index (SMI) began rising on February 24. This indicator tracks the trading behavior of informed traders, often linked to strategic positioning. When this index rises, it suggests experienced investors may be positioning early.
The last time this happened was February 13, when the SMI started moving toward the signal line. Back then, the Bitcoin price climbed about 7% over two days.
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This time, the move was stronger. Bitcoin jumped nearly 12%, briefly touching $70,000. At the same time, Bitcoin is now forming what appears to be a cup and handle pattern. This is a bullish structure. It often appears before breakouts.
But the breakout is not confirmed yet. Because Bitcoin is still stuck below the critical upsloping neckline zone between $70,000 and $70,800.
This range now acts as the trigger level. Until Bitcoin crosses it, the pattern remains incomplete.
Despite bullish technical signals, the underlying demand is still weak. Trading volume shows this clearly.
Earlier in February, Bitcoin trading volume reached $125.5 billion. That was during the previous price move. Today, trading volume is around $52 billion. That is more than 58% lower.
Even more importantly, Dessislava Ianeva confirmed this broader trading participation weakness.
This means fewer participants are supporting the move. This is critical because price rallies need strong participation to sustain themselves. At the same time, open interest has also dropped sharply.
Open interest measures the number of futures positions that are active. Earlier in January, open interest stood near $37.5 billion. Now it is around $21.5 billion. That is a 43% drop. This tells us fewer traders are willing to take large positions.